The Atlanta Braves have won five games in a row and look to make it six tonight against the Texas Rangers. The Braves will send Charlie Morton to the mound to face Nate Eovaldi. The Atlanta Braves are 13-5 while the Rangers fell to 11-10 on the season after their 8-3 loss to the Braves.

Charlie Morton vs. Rangers Hitters

Rangers hitters have racked up 68 collective at-bats against Morton over their careers. They are slashing .250/.301/.382 off the veteran. They have just five extra-base hits with two homers off the right-hander. They have struck out in 19 of 68 at-bats.

Marcus Semien has owned Morton in 24 career at-bats with a .375 average, .423 OBP, and a .458 SLG. To save you the math, that’s an .881 OPS vs. Ground Chuck. Semien leads off for the Rangers and has a chance to be a thorn in Morton’s side early, much like he did last night with his leadoff homer off of Chris Sale to begin the game.

Corey Seager is just 1-12 off of Morton in his career. No other Rangers player has more than seven at-bats against Morton.

Veteran Charlie Morton has been prone to streakiness throughout his time with the Braves. He has 18 strikeouts in 17 innings pitched this season with a 1.35 WHIP an a 5.29 ERA. He has gone 5 2/3 innings in all three starts this season, which is actually a tick higher than what he averaged over 30 starts last season (5.44 IP/G). Don’t confuse 5.44 as higher than 5.2 IP. Remember, in baseball for some lazy reason we refer to 5.67 innings as 5.2, even though two outs is two-thirds of the outs needed to complete an inning and 0.2 is only 20%… and you can’t get 20% of the required outs in any given inning.

Morton was 7-5 at home last season with a 3.23 ERA (3.99 on the road). Morton struck out 91 batters at home in just 75.1 innings vs. 92 hitters on the road in 88.0 innings. He had a 2.89 ERA in night games (5.26 ERA during day games). Morton liked pitching at home and and at night. So, that lines up for Charlie tonight.

Nathan Eovaldi vs. Braves Hitters

Braves hitters have racked up 71 collective at-bats against Eovaldi. They have slashed .268/.316/.394 against him.

Ronald Acuna Jr. holds the only homer on the roster off of Eovaldi. Acuna is 1-5 overall against him.

David Fletcher is 4-6 with two doubles. Watch out for Fletcher if he gets a start tonight. He might be a good play for a hit.

Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley are both 2-6 off Eovaldi and both are hot. Ozuna in particular as he is riding a league-best 17-game hit streak.

Eovaldi enters tonight’s game with a 2.92 ERA on the young season. He has 22 strikeouts in 24.2 innings and has only allowed a 1.014 WHIP.

Prior to his last start against the Astros, Eovaldi had not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his four starts. On April 14th, the Astros roughed him up for five earned runs over 6.0 innings. Eovaldi has put together four-consecutive excellent seasons between 2020-2023. His ERAs have ranged between 3.63 and 3.87 during that time. Last season, he was a little better on the road than at home, but there was no conspicuous drop off either way.

This season, Eovaldi is in the 92nd percentile in chase %, 80th percentile in fastball velocity, 78th percentile in whiff rate, and 74th percentile in walk rate. The crafty veteran has a solid four-pitch mix he relies on consistently.

• Four Seam: 32.2%
• Split Finger: 32.2%
• Curveball: 18%
• Cutter: 15.5%
• Slider: 2.1%

This could present a tough matchup for Atlanta.

Although Eovaldi is a right-handed pitcher, he had more success against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters last season. He held lefties to a .586 OPS and righties to a .755 OPS.

Braves Odds: Spread and Moneyline

The Braves are favored in this home matchup by 1.5 runs (+124 odds) and the Braves Moneyline is set at -155 odds, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Atlanta Braves Odds: Picks of the Day

I am 16-3 on my Braves picks this year. You can check out my previous picks here. We got a little crazy yesterday and threw caution to the wind. We almost never go four picks of the day, let alone pick a homer. We gave it a shot and only hit on two of the picks.

• Braves Moneyline (-155): I don’t feel great about this one tonight. I’ll take the Braves to win. I’m hoping Morton can stay in control and work around Semien. The Rangers lineup can be handled. This is going to come down to Morton and whether he’s got his stuff tonight. Eovaldi is a very good pitcher. He throws hard and mixes pitches to keep hitters off balance while he stays in the zone. His cutter and curveball have been a little prone to getting smashed if he leaves them over the plate this season. The Braves have the best offense in the league right now and the Rangers bullpen has been taxed lately. The Braves have destroyed bullpens this year. I like the chances that the Braves get ahold of a couple of Eovaldi’s pitches in the zone as he attacks hitters early. Then bring on the bullpen!
• Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-150): Acuna has a hit in seven of his last nine games. He has scored a run in eight of his last 11 games. Eovaldi doesn’t like to walk hitters. Acuna has a good (albeit short) track record off Eovaldi.

Braves vs. Rangers Parlay of the Day (DraftKings)

At the time of this writing, this four-leg parlay has +100 odds.

• Acuna 1+ Hit
• Charlie Morton 4+ K
• Braves over 2.5 runs
• Rangers under 8.5 runs

*Odds pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Disclaimer: Any bets you place based on our advice will likely make you lose. Never gamble any money that is not budgeted as such. Pay your damn bills before you gamble. Only use discretionary funds. If you think you have a gambling problem, you shouldn’t have even read this article and tempted yourself.

Disclaimer #2: Odds are subject to change over the course of the day. All odds are as of the time of writing and may not be exactly what you see. We use the DraftKings Sportsbook for our odds.

Let us know your favorite picks for today’s game in the comments! Subscribe for more Braves news, odds, and opinions!