My friend ‘Boggy’ — the unofficial Braves Options Guy who haunts Knockahoma Nation (@KnockahomaNTN) on X.com — has rightly pointed out a notable error that has been corrected below.

Publicly this off-season, the Atlanta Braves have been making statements about how pleased they are of the progress all of their injured pitchers are making. While starting pitching has been listed as an area of interest, that aspect of the roster has been down-played as a priority.

Should we buy into that? Don’t bet on it.

On paper, the Braves would appear to have their rotation in order: Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo Lopez, and the emergent Hurston Waldrep represent a solid group, with Grant Holmes and the perennial Bryce Elder as the likely ‘next-up’ options.

But paper doesn’t field a team, and this is a club that was forced to use an incredible nineteen starting pitchers to survive 2025. That knowledge is certainly still fresh in the minds of everyone in the clubhouse and beyond… which is why we can never rule out the notion that Alex Anthopoulos might be satisfied with his current roster.

Let’s Make a Deal?

That’s why the news of the Mets acquiring Freddy Peralta hit hard last week. New York was able to blow other suitors out of the water by trading AAA prospect infielder Jett Williams and starting pitcher Brandon Sproat to Milwaukee. They now slot into the Brewers’ prospect charts at numbers 3 and 6, respectively.

Williams was made redundant in New York with their addition of Marcus Semien this Winter, and Sproat will likely take Peralta’s place in Milwaukee. Both are Baseball America Top 100 prospects (MLB Pipeline has Williams at #30), which represents a stiff price for Peralta (and reliever Tobias Myers) given that Peralta is under team control only for 2026.

Could the Braves have even matched that return to Milwaukee? MLBPipeline has Atlanta with just two Top 100 players: Cam Caminiti (72) and JR Ritchie (86). Waldrep would certainly qualify for the list, though he’s now ‘graduated’… and there’s no reason to believe Atlanta would even entertain a deal including him.

So JR Ritchie and maybe Elder? Would you do that? I’m not convinced that either side would have made that deal. The next-best option might have been offering Atlanta’s “extra” draft pick (for Drake Baldwin’s Rookie of the Year win) along with Elder, and Milwaukee certainly would go with the Mets deal if both were on the table.

Peralta may not be the only trade option out there (don’t even get me started on Tarik Skubal — that’s not happening), but at this point, the easiest option would be to sign one of the remaining free agent starters out there.

But at what cost?

The Price of Admission

Let’s go through this exercise. According to the latest number on the Cot’s site, the Atlanta Braves are sitting at a Competitive-Balance Tax payroll level of $258,789,801. That’s $14.8 million above the 1st-level tax threshold, which projects a tax burden of nearly $3 million.

That’s roughly $5.2 million below the second threshold and $25.2 million above the third marker.

Atlanta is going to be a “first year payer” in 2026, and thus subject to a 20% tax on all overages. However, there can be surcharges and additional penalties for egregious violators.

• Anything above the 2nd threshold ($264 million) requires a 12% surcharge
• Anything above the 3rd threshold ($284 million) requires a 42.5% surcharge (45% after the 1st year)
• Anything above the 3rd threshold also imposes a draft pick penalty

The good news is that this would not impact the 2026 draft [that’s the substance of the correction Boggy realized]. Presumably, if the Braves have a better season, they will be drafting somewhere in the bottom third next year… 30th if they are the best club, 19th if they barely skate into the playoffs.

So this year’s picks — 9 and 26 — could not be impacted by crashing through that 3rd threshold (though keep reading… there might still be a 2026 impact). For the 2027 draft, though…

• 1st draft pick moved down by 10 slots
• A corresponding loss of draft pool monies (on average, that’s roughly a 70% reduction in the slot value of a 10-slot-higher pick).

Pool monies matter… particularly as the Braves have made a habit of picking ‘underslot’ guys to try and maximize the talent available to them … and that art form has kinda worked for them.

Losing a late first round pick is not ideal… but the risk is that if Atlanta were to do this and repeat a bad season… it could be a tremendous loss. While the first six draft picks are protected… the rest aren’t.

There’s One More Problem

Suppose you want to sign one of the better available starters remaining — Zac Gallen or Framber Valdez. There’s an extra string attached to these players: it called the Rejected Qualifying Offer.

Signing one of these pitchers would require the Braves to forfeit their second-highest draft pick and $500K from their next international signing pool monies (presumably for Jan of 2027 at this point).

That penalty would be imposed this year.

So imagine this: Atlanta currently has picks 9 and 26 in the first round this year. But signing one of those QO players would change that to only pick #9.

Again: Pick #9 would remain, but Pick 26 would be lost due to the QO rules.

In 2025, picks 26 was worth $3.49 million of draft pool monies. That’s not insignificant.

But… let’s go through the exercise…

The Options

$20-25 million should be able to buy you a respectable starting pitcher. Lately, though…?

Chris Bassitt got $22 million in 2024 and again in 2025 with the Blue Jays — his age 35 and 36 seasons. He threw 341 innings and had an combined ERA of roughly 4.07. He might take a pay cut to $20 million… but likely only if you give him a second year. At least he’s not one of the QO guys.

Zac Gallen is younger — entering his age 30 season — and he’s been above 180 innings 3 times in the past 4 seasons with a lifetime ERA at 3.58 (albeit 4.83 in 2025). This is his first free agency period after a $13.5 million last arbitration year. Oh, and he’s a Boras Corporation client, so I’m certain that they are shooting for $25+ million and at least 5 years(MLB Trade Rumors was guessing a 4×20 deal).

Should I even mention Framber Valdez and his 3.36 lifetime ERA and 4 straight seasons of 175 innings or more? He’s even been mentioned on MVP ballots twice. His price tag is certainly well above $30 million.

So for Gallen: it’s about his salary plus a 32% penalty and a possible draft-pick one/two punch for this year and next (unless they can structure something just under $25.2 million). Valdez? The same plus a 42.5% surcharge on the amount he’s paid above $25 million.

That’s pretty prohibitive. You do that only for somebody who’s a game-changer.

What Will Happen

While we can’t forget that other teams are still looking for pitching (notably the Orioles, Giants, Mets, et al), the Braves’ level of comfort will drive this bus.

It would be good to have another starter: Lopez and Schwellenbach are among my picks as the ones with possibly lingering health risks and Atlanta needs to be more certain about their lineup going into this season.

There’s also the knowledge that the Braves need to know they are better than their rivals. The Mets have improved over the last couple of weeks (though still in a bit of chaos), the Phillies are mostly just older, and the Dodgers are the undisputed kings that need to be challenged.

They there’s the wild card: the Braves TV partner. Right now, things are in a bit of limbo. That means there’s a source of revenue that can’t be counted on with certainty. But they still have a profitable franchise (that was true even in a down year), so money should be available to invest in another pitcher.

Do they wait it out? Anthopoulos doesn’t usually wait until the end — he strikes when he can for something he feels is important.

We’ve seen free agent pitchers sign with teams after the start of Spring Training… and it doesn’t usually go that well, as there’s a significant “catch up” time required.

So barring a surprise, I think it will be Bassitt, and if so, it will happen by February 5th.

Is that the best answer? No, but it’s the safe answer for the money, the draft, the future… and Bassitt would be yet another ‘Charlie Morton’ to help out this club.