Writer’s note: while the discussion below remains intact, there was a development this afternoon (7/17/25) that requires an update. That update is provided near the end.
In an ideal world, the MLB draft process would proceed like this: each team would line up in their draft order and each one would select the highest-ranked eligible amateur player still available. Rinse and repeat until all 20 rounds are complete.
But… that’s just not the way it goes for the Atlanta Braves or… anyone else, really. There’s several reasons for this:
- Every team has their own needs/plans
- Every team has their own player rankings
- Every team has their own idea of risk aversion
- Every team has a different-sized bonus pool of monies available to spend.
The Atlanta Braves’ draft this week was very illustrative of the balancing of these factors. But before we get into those details, we have to go through the rules that are in play:
MLB Draft Procedures
Feel free to skip this if you’re already acquainted with this process.
1. Every draft pick in the first 10 rounds comes with a designated ‘standard’ dollar value. This is the amount of bonus that MLB has calculated each pick is worth: a “slotted” amount for every one of those 315 picks. When you add up all of the slot values for each team, these sums represent the total amount each team is allowed to spend on bonuses.
2. The Braves have a total bonus pool of $9,081,100 to spend on their 2025 picks. Again, that’s the total amount of money they can offer to their draftees selected in the first 10 rounds, which is based on the slot values for all of their 11 picks (they got a compensation pick at the end of Round 4).
3. Each team has the option of exceeding their designated pool amount, but there are penalties involved. In the Braves’ case, spending an extra $454,055 is permitted (5% of their pool), though there would be a 75% tax on any dollars spent above that $9,081,100 figure.
4. For Rounds 11-20, the signing bonuses paid do not count against that total bonus pool unless a player is given more than $150,000, in which case the amount over $150K is counted against the pool.
5. No team has ever spent beyond that 5% overage barrier: that’s because spending at that level starts to lose future draft picks… starting with a 1st rounder. Between that talent loss and the loss of a significant amount of pool money,… well, let’s just say it would take a truly extraordinary player for any team to even contemplate doing that.
6. All draft picks must be signed by July 28th at 5pm EDT. If not, there are 2 consequences for the drafting team: (a) they lose the rights to that player; (b) their current draft pool is reduced by the amount of money assigned to the draft slot occupied by that unsigned player. If the lost player came from Rounds1-3, the team is compensated by receiving a new draft pick at the same position (+1) as the one forfeited (exception: 3rd rounders are replaced at the end of that round).
Okay, that was ugly. Here’s how those rules impacted the Braves in 2025
Shortstops were getting ripped off the board in breathtaking fashion on Sunday. But if you subscribe to the rankings constructed by the team at MLB Pipeline, there was an interesting, yet clear line of demarcation that formed.
In their rankings, 10 shortstops appeared among the Top 17 players available in the draft – a remarkable class of talent at that position. But then there was a sizeable gap… no other shortstops were named on that list until ranking position #39.
Clearly, the Braves were hunting shortstops…taking 3 in a row spoke volumes. But by the time their pick rolled around (22nd overall), 9 of those top 10 shortstops had already been snatched up. I guess everybody understood where the quality was… and they generally agreed with MLB Pipeline’s assessments.
So what to do here? Go for the next-best player available? At pick 22, that could have been either SS Wehiwa Aloy (Univ of Arkansas), LHP Kruz Schoolcraft (High schooler/Oregon), or OF Jace LaViolette (Texas A&M).
Instead, the Braves appeared to stick to their plan and opted for the next-best available shortstop on the board in high-schooler Tate Southisene. He’s a quality pick, to be sure, but why him, and why there?
More on this subject came in this week’s podcast…
There’s a Strategy
Before answering that question, we need to look at the next 2 picks: shortstops Alex Lodise and Cody Miller. Lodise was actually the next-ranked shortstop behind Southisene (43rd overall by MLB Pipeline’s reckoning), though Miller wasn’t on their board at all.
The answer: all of these picks were ‘maneuvering’ – a plan for Atlanta to get into position to make their 4th round selection.
Sure: shortstops will fill positions of need for Atlanta, and shortstops in general can transfer to other positions (almost anything else on the diamond, in fact), but there’s a reason they took the guys they did.
It’s likely that the team already had verbal deals in place with all of these guys to get them to sign for less money than the draft slot value for their picks… i.e., they were “underslot” guys.
How do I know this? Because – according to BaseballAmerica — the trio has already been signed (though the team has not announced the signings as of this writing), and more importantly, they have apparently agreed to underslot terms:
- Southisene: signed for $2,622,500; underslot by 1.36 million
- Lodise: signed for $1,297,500; underslot by $250K
- Miller: signed for $297,500; underslot by $499K
- In addition to that, the Braves have reportedly signed their 8th, 9th, and 10th round picks for $7500, $2500, and $2500 apiece.
Combined, these six signings represent a saving to the team of roughly $2,680,000 against their pool. But don’t expect them to pocket that money.
Enter Briggs McKenzie
Let me introduce you to fourth round pick Briggs McKenzie, a left-handed pitcher from Corinth Holder high school in North Carolina with a hammer curve ball spinning above 3000 RPM.
While 69th-ranked by MLB Pipeline (also: 79th by TheAthletic; 73rd by ESPN; #10 Lefty pitcher by Perfect Game). it seems likely that the Braves are pretty high on his projection. It’s also likely that they saw him as a possible signing risk.
Had Atlanta thrown caution to the wind and taken him with their first pick (#22 overall), the bonus slot value there was $3,983,000. Along with the 5% overage cushion, that would allow the Braves to offer him something between that and $4.4 million.
Here’s the trouble: as a high schooler, he can snub the Braves and simply re-enter the draft after a Ju-Co stint, or perhaps after a full career at LSU… which is quite a nice place to play these days.
While McKenzie was considered a fringy-1st rounder this Summer, the dilemma was this:
- Do you take the kid near the end of Round 1 when there’s a chance he could blossom into a true 1st rounder that you’ll never be able to draft (assuming your team is good enough to draft low in 4 years)… while…
- He’s likely got advisors telling him that after a great LSU career, he could see a bonus of $5 million or more if he just “bets on himself”.
Thus anyone drafting McKenzie runs the risk of losing that draft pool money if he doesn’t like what a team might be offering. Losing a first round pick would be devastating to the amount of bonus pool dollars available to spend – amounting to roughly 40% of the overall budget.
Enter the Underslot Strategy
Atlanta – needing position players – was in the perfect position to try this ploy. They got 2 quality shortstops selected at draft positions just a bit higher than their pre-draft rankings. It is evident that they were able to get them to agree to terms saving pool monies for the team. Their third shortstop (Miller) is probably thrilled to just be drafted at all, and happily agreed to a bonus just under $300K.
Now the Braves can throw money at McKenzie with a lot less risk.
If he opts for LSU… well, Godspeed and we hope you have a productive and injury-free campaign. Atlanta will lose the $588K pool allocation, but the only real loss is that it’s an uncompensated pick. Better that than a having $3.98 million spending handicap that would make the entire rest of their draft very difficult to navigate.
But this strategy should work for Atlanta, for McKenzie (and his advisors) have to know these things:
- Depending on what else happens for their draft picks in Rounds 4 (compensation pick) and 7, the Braves will offer him something between $3,300,000 and $3,750,000 (rough estimates).
- That’s money he can take right now and it’s his with no risk. If his arm falls off in September, he’s still set for life, pending decent investment decisions.
- The absolute best he can hope for is an $11+ million payday in 4 years, but the odds suggest something closer to the $1-to-$5 million range… and of course there’s a lot more players he would have to outshine to get into that future 1st Round.
One or two players reject a suitor’s offer almost every year. We don’t know McKenzie’s mindset. It is evident that Atlanta likes this kid, but also was wary of the risk, and thus this is the route they took to mitigate that risk while also putting themselves into a position to succeed with the players they have drafted – and signed.
7/17/25 Update
Well, Alex Anthopoulos is seldom fully predictable, so we’ll have to tweak a couple of things given above. Turns out that the Braves were after more than just Mr. McKenzie:
Yes, you read that right: an overslot signing for almost $759,000 above slot. That’s pretty stout for the 5th rounder — and the last high schooler taken.
So by my reckoning — at this particular moment in time — the Braves have now committed $5,427,500 in signing bonuses and have $3,653,600 remaining until hitting that $9.081 million threshold… $4.107,655 until hitting the 5% overage limitation with 3 players to sign apart from McKenzie. Note that the team’s history suggests that they have no problem with going right up to that edge.
So yes: while they threw a solid bonus to Mr. Essenburg, there’s still a considerable sum available for Mr. McKenzie (even if they are a third of my age, I’ll say ‘Mr.’ to those signing million-dollar deals).
Update #2 (7/18)
Carlos Collazo reports on twitter that Atlanta has indeed been able to sign Briggs McKenzie. His signing bonus is reported to be $2,997,500 — leaving roughly $656K and change on the table for the remaining draft picks.
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But if you ever wondered about the reasons for a team selecting an “underslot” player in the MLB draft… this is almost a textbook illustration of the reasons for doing so.
Good luck to both sides on this negotiation.
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