Marcell Ozuna got off to a great start. Through the end of April, Ozuna had a .915 OPS with 5 HRs. By the end of May, he had a .280 average, .426 OBP, and 9 HRs. He looked like Marcell Ozuna. Then, the Braves announced he was dealing with a tear in his hip and that he was going to play through it.
Between June 1 and the All-Star break, Ozuna slashed just .182/.272/.311. As Ozuna was in the midst of his downward spiral, the Braves were looking more and more like potential sellers at the trade deadline.
The problem: Ozuna is the top option for them to sell, as he is in the final year of his contract and coming off a dominant few seasons.
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It’s hard to be optimistic about the .182 average since June 1, but Ozuna showed some signs of life as we entered the break.
In the final five games before the break, he slugged .733 with two home runs.
Overall, his Statcast numbers still show elite power this season. He’s in the 94th percentile in xwOBA with .377. His average exit velocity is still excellent at 91.3 mph, well above league average and not even among the worst seasons of his career.
Ozuna has a lot of red on that StatCast page. He’s in the 89th percentile in hard-hit%, 82nd percentile in xSLG, and 84th percentile in average exit velocity. His chase rate is 84th percentile, and his walk rate is an insane 99th percentile at 16.5%.
The injury may be affecting him, as his max exit velocity isn’t reaching old heights, and his bat speed is down a little. Still, the numbers look good enough to speculate that bad luck could be having an influence.
The life his bat showed at the end of the first half of the season is enough to try to buy low on the Big Bear. Whether he spends the remainder of the year on the Braves or in the middle of the lineup for a contender, Ozuna could be a nice second-half addition as he tries to play his way into a new contract this offseason.
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