It has already been a forgettable season for our Atlanta Braves in 2025. Losing four members of the rotation to injury (dating back to Reynaldo Lopez in the off-season) – even after trying to absorb the departure of Max Fried and Charlie Morton – made for an uphill climb. But with shrewd maneuvers over the next couple of weeks, Atlanta may have the opportunity to reload for the future.
The basis for this has been building for quite some time, of course, but a ‘throw-in’ note on a Bob Nightengale MLB Draft piece today has gotten a lot of notice.
That note about long-term contracts would seem to underline sentiments expressed by Alex Anthopoulos within the last month or so… which rules out catcher Sean Murphy, despite reported interest in him (no shock there). But we’ll discuss that bit later.
What should be the goal for Atlanta is trades? In general, one or two prospects with bona fide major league potential. Writing in TheAthletic (subscription based), former GM Jim Bowden suggests hunting for a future shortstop and (of course) “young pitching”.
Let’s then take a look at the players most likely to be moved before the 6pm July 31 deadline.
Raisel Iglesias. Odds 98%
Relief pitching is almost always high on the list for the GM’s of contending clubs, but getting a quality closer can be difficult. That said, Raisel Iglesias is starting to make this decision relatively easy.
From the Braves’ perspective: he’s 35 years old and he’s on the last year of his 4-year deal. That contract pays him $16 million for the season, which means an club acquiring him on July 31 would be responsible for an estimated $5 million (with roughly 31.55% of the season remaining).
That’s not a bad number, though Atlanta is in the somewhat enviable position of being able to write a check for that $5 million in order to “buy” a premium prospect from a trade partner.
Since the Braves are currently under the 2025 luxury tax threshold (and certainly intending to stay there), saving $5 million doesn’t really do anything for them this year. Using that money to get a top prospect? Yeah… that’s a good use of the resources available.
Doing so would accomplish two things: (1) it opens up the market to clubs that might not otherwise be able to afford to spend that cash; and (2) it gives the Braves some leverage over the few ‘richer’ clubs that would prefer to pay the fee and send only a non-prospect in return.
In the meantime, Iglesias is doing his part to make himself quite marketable. Over his last 9 outings, he’s yielded no runs, 3 hits, and just 1 walk… none of those in the same game. He’s also K’d 12 batters.
Going even further, he’s on a 14-outing scoreless streak dating back to June 9. He’s pitched 3 days in a row once and 3 games in 4 days.
Iglesias has been all anyone would want in a reliever – never mind a closer. His ultimate destination will be a mystery (best guesses: Giants or Rangers; perhaps Tigers or Cubs), but I would be shocked if he isn’t dealt sometime in the next 18 days.
Marcel Ozuna. Odds 85%
Here’s another case of “pay-to-win” for the Atlanta Braves. Ozuna is likewise a “rental” trade candidate, now nearing the end of his four-year deal. Also like Iglesias, he’s making $16 million this season, and thus he’d cost $5 million to a trade partner.
The difference here is in value, and someone functioning strictly as a DH might be considered less valuable than a closer. But there’s still several reasons why this might work for Atlanta.
Ozuna has been playing hurt a lot this year… his legs haven’t been fully under him for hitting through much of the year. On our most recent podcast, I postulated that Brian Snitker might opt to rest him a bit coming into the All-Star break to allow a chance to heal.
That has been the case: Ozuna isn’t playing today (Sunday’s closing game in St. Louis, and he was also skipped in Friday’s contest before playing – and homering – in Saturday’s contest.
Ozuna is hitting just .239 on the year, though slugging almost .400 with a wRC+ of 117. After a month-long homer drought starting June 14, he may be starting back into form with long balls in two of his last 3 games.
The trade deadline is notorious for seeing teams shop for three kinds of players: starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and bats. Clearly, a healthy Ozuna can fill that latter role, and it seems clear that the Braves are treating him with kid gloves to get him back to smashing baseballs.
The trick is this, though: are there any contending teams in need a pure DH?
Absolutely.
The leading candidate, from this point of view, is the San Diego Padres. That club is 27th in baseball with a -1.3 WAR from the DH spot. Acquiring a DH would fill one of their biggest needs, and they certainly have an aggressive trade-wrangler in A.J. Preller.
[insert here everything I said above about ‘buying a prospect by writing a $5 million check… it applies here as well]
Other possible partners? Ranked in order of likelihood: Astros, Rangers, Giants, Toronto, Mets, Royals, Reds. Seriously… lots of possibilities, as almost all are ranked in the bottom half of baseball in DH performance.
The one wrinkle here is that Ozuna does have veto rights: he’s a 10-and-5 player and that comes automatically. He will have a say in where he goes… though while he could choose to go nowhere, it’s my bet that he’d rather go to a contender for the Fall, particularly since his days with Atlanta are numbered anyway.
So in fact, the only reason I cite the odds here as 85% is to allow for the possibility that injury could nix a deal. Otherwise… Ozuna is as good as gone.
Pierce Johnson. Odds 75%
For any club needing a solid back-end reliever who could close from time-to-time, Johnson would be a good fit. He’s also on a hot-streak… more-or-less… with 10 straight scoreless outings.
There was a hiccup against the Orioles where he yielded 2 hits and a walk, but wasn’t charged with a run… nonetheless, he’s righted his own ship since a rough patch from mid-May to mid-June.
Overall, he’s sitting on a 2.67 ERA with a K/Walk ratio well over 3 and a homers-per-9 rating under 1. That’s what teams are looking for in a setup man.
Johnson is making $7 million this season and actually comes with a dirt-cheap option for next year: a $250K buyout against another $7 million if he’s re-upped by an acquiring club.
That’s an attractive option, particularly since his 2025 price comes in at just $2.2 million. Again, I would expect Atlanta to wheel-and-deal to see what team offers the best prospect before handing a plane ticket to the former 1st round pick.
But I do think he’s going somewhere. Any contender would take him.
Others
Aaron Bummer. Odds 20% at best. As opposed to Iglesias and Johnson, Bummer has been trending in the wrong direction. There’s also the ‘poison pill’ of his contract. While it pays him just $3.5 million this season, it leaps to $9.5 million next year.
All other relievers (all of them combined): odds 10%. There aren’t many standouts other than Dylan Lee, and he’s not going anywhere.
Ozzie Albies. <5%. See above about the multi-year deal guys. Yes: there’s always a scenario where Anthopoulos gets an overwhelming offer and decides he can’t refuse it… but would you really expect that for Albies? Even given his (relatively paltry) salary?
Albies could be an exception to the long-term-contract rule, given that his 2026 terms come via an option year (thus it’s kinda not a long-term deal… even though there’s a second option for 2027). In that scenario, Nacho Alvarez Jr. becomes the second baseman for 2026 and beyond with his better set-up bat and better fielding overall.
If that’s the plan, then it would make sense to get something for Albies now rather than to simply decline his 2026 option this Winter.
But I don’t expect that to happen. It’s still a good contract for the club, so they’ll almost certainly keep it.
Special Mention
Sean Murphy. <10%. Contrary to Albies situation, I can conceive of an ‘overwhelming offer’ situation for Murphy. He’s white-hot with the bat right now and is clearly a more-than-capable receiver behind the dish who can play almost every day.
Above, I suggested that the Giants and Padres were on the list for Ozuna. Both teams also could use a hitting catcher (though the Giants have an outstanding defender in Trevor Bailey). The Padres are 30th in catcher production.
But tecall that aggressive GM in San Diego? A.J. Preller? He’s made 35 trades since getting his feet wet in 2014. He’s dealt names like Yasmani Grandal, Zach Efflin, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, both Upton brothers, Max Fried, Will Middlebrooks, Craig Kimbrel, James Shields, Fernando Rodney, Fernando Tatis Jr., Matt Kemp… among so many others.
Could I imagine a scenario in which Preller throws a pile of quality prospects at Atlanta for both Ozuna and Murphy? Yes, I could. Could Alex Anthopoulos resist such a temptation? Depends on what he offers.
If the offer included both SS Leodalis De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas (both high top-100 prospects and both ‘due’ around 2027), then the Braves would have to think long and hard about it. Preller doesn’t usually end up parting with his best trade chips, though, and I’d find it difficult that he’d offer both – though it would be exactly what Atlanta would and should demand. Heck, personally I’d throw in Iglesias if they would cop to that deal.
In any case: don’t hold your breath on this one. Drake Baldwin is the real thing, but teaming him with Murphy is a great combination for the Braves that would be difficult to beat… now and in the foreseeable future.
Changes are coming
Braves fans should thus be attentive to the trade feeds during the last week of this month. It is unfortunate that 2025 has morphed into a “sell” year, but that doesn’t mean that it’s all bad news. In this case, it’s all about the future, and that future starts now.
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