The Atlanta Braves kicked off a 13-game stretch against NL East opponents with a 10th-inning victory over the first-place New York Mets.
Spencer Schwellenbach and David Peterson were both very good in this one. Schwellenbach allowed four earned runs, but two came on a misread fly ball by Acuna that dropped in for a double. Acuna looked like he wasn’t going full speed at first before realizing he would need to pick up the pace. He turned the jets on and dove; the ball dropped in for a lazy fly ball double off the bat of the Mets’ ninth hitter, Tyrone Taylor.
Plays like this can be frustrating from a player we know is still among the fastest in the league. His speed doesn’t show in his average sprint speed, but his first steal of the season was recorded at over 30 feet per second. We know Acuna is among the fastest when he wants to be.
We also know that Acuna suffered his first knee injury going all out for a ball in the outfield. The second one came in a rundown. Since his first knee injury, Acuna’s OAA (range-based defensive stat) has plummeted. Read more about Acuna’s poor OAA in our post titled Is Acuna Bad at Defense?
That two-run double in the second inning tonight was a big one. Schwellenbach looked visibly frustrated after the play. The announcers said that Acuna didn’t read the ball immediately and maybe thought it would carry more. See the play below.
UPDATE: The two-run double on 06/17/2025 vs. the Mets had a 75% catch probability, according to Statcast.
Below is a similar play from the Rockies series. Based on the distance he needed to travel and the ball’s hang time, this had an 80% catch probability.
Below is another video in which the catch probability was 85%. This ball hit off the wall, but not that high. If Acuna had kept running, he would likely have been able to make the play at the wall. However, we’ve seen Acuna routinely pull up on these balls since his injuries. He doesn’t want to risk it, and I don’t think anyone blames him.
That takes us to tonight. With the game tied in the top of the 9th, Alonso drove one to the rightfield wall. Acuna did not wait for this one to hit the wall and play it off the hop. He risked it with the game on the line, leaping through the air to make the play, then doubled Juan Soto off at first.
Why Acuna Has a Low OAA and Why it’s A-OKAY
Braves fans are thrilled to have Acuna’s bat back in the lineup, and he can walk around the outfield for all we care. But seeing him tap into his inner Superman when we need it is exciting. What a play! What a game!
Personally, it does not bother me that Acuna doesn’t use the range he probably has in him in order to try and protect himself. He makes the plays he’s supposed to. He isn’t going to show up diving and catching for a ball with a 5% catch probability. He’s also not going to miss on one of those dives. That’s one of the things that these metrics don’t account for.
Below is a video of a 5% catch probability ball, and Acuna played it properly. These are the plays you make to boost your OAA. They add the .95 to your score, so it’s how guys like Kevin Kiermeier could get their numbers so high. You have to make some plays like this to boost your OAA.
Acuna played this ball safely, and it was just a single. Imagine he wanted that 0.95 on his score, so he dove at a ball that only 5% of outfielders would get to based on hangtime and the distance he needed to travel to get to the ball. Risking it on a play like that means there’s a 95% chance that the ball is getting past him and turning into extra bases.
Acuna’s safe routes and strong arm are also a part of the reason he’s among the best in the game at preventing extra bases. He’s always found among the leaders in Statcast Extra Bases Prevented, and we know he has one of the elite arms in baseball.
The Braves pulled the victory off in the 10th inning on a long Austin Riley sac fly.
The Braves prepare to send Chris Sale to the mound to face Paul Blackburn tomorrow in this critical three-game set against the Mets.
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