As of now, the Atlanta Braves have not made any significant acquisitions via the trade market or the free agent market. Until something changes, here is the existing projected rotation.

Atlanta Braves Rotation Projection for 2025

1. Chris Sale

Chris Sale is coming off of his first Cy Young Award of his illustrious career. He won the NL Triple Crown. He was spectacular. However, we know about his long history of injuries. It’s a part of the reason the Braves were able to get such a sweet deal on him last season. Sale is the locked-in ace as we patiently await the return of Spencer Strider.

2. Reynaldo Lopez

Reynaldo Lopez was a free-agent addition last season. He was a starter-turned-reliever turned back into a starter. Alex Anthopoulos and his team believed Lopez’s talents as a reliever were ready to translate to production in the Braves rotation, and boy did they. Lopez made his first All-Star team in 2024 and went 8-5 with a 1.99 ERA over 25 starts.

He only pitched 135.2 innings and potentially showed signs of wear toward the end of the season with a couple of IL stints. The Braves hope he will increase his endurance this season but it’s always possible he continues to struggle with the increased workload.

Prior to last season, Lopez had not been a starter since 2019. His 135.2 innings last season represent 38.6% of all of his innings pitched since the beginning of the 2020 season.

3. Spencer Schwellenbach

Spencer Schwellenbach burst into the Braves rotation in his rookie year. He made 21 starts for Atlanta and posted a 3.35 ERA with 9.2 strikeouts per nine. He limited walks to just 1.7 per nine innings. Between July 21st and the end of August, Spencer Schwellenbach morphed into one of the elite strikeout pitchers in the game. The rookie produced 61 strikeouts over 42.1 innings. During that stretch, his ERA dropped from 4.62 to 3.72. Of course he continued improving over the final month and ended with a 3.35 ERA.

Is he ready for an increased workload after pitching 123.2 innings in his rookie season?

Candidates for Backend of Braves Rotation

If the Braves do not bring in an extra hand, the third and fourth spots will open the season as opportunities for young pitchers. We’d like to think the Braves will pull off a move to push Schwellenbach down into the fourth spot (fifth after Spencer Strider’s glorious return). We have reason to believe the Braves are getting close to bringing in a big name.

A healthy Spencer Strider completely changes the impact of this rotation. That is of course, if everyone else is healthy. We all know that never happens. The Braves need to bring in one more guy to add reliable depth while getting production from some young arms.

The primary candidates to fill out the end of the rotation include youngsters like:

• Grant Holmes (3.65 ERA over 68.1 IP)
• Bryce Elder (former All-Star)
• AJ Smith-Shawver (Who is AJSS?, #2 Braves Prospect at MLB Pipeline)
• Ian Anderson (Ready for a return to glory?)
• Dylan Dodd (7.68 ERA over 36.1 MLB innings)
• Allan Winans (7.20 ERA over 40.0 MLB innings)
• Hurston Waldrep (#3 Braves Prospect at MLB Pipeline)

Braves Rotation Risky Without Acquisition

Chris Sale’s 177.2 innings last season were the most he’s had since 2017. We hope Lopez will improve upon his 135.2 innings pitched last season, but it’s definitely not a lock. Schwellenbach will be attempting to push himself to career highs in innings pitched. Will he make it? Will he be able to sustain his success? None of these guys represent a lock.

We don’t know what to expect from Spencer Strider this year. We’ve heard he’s going to be out for about a month, but who knows at this point? We also don’t know how long it will take him to return to form.

The Braves rotation has a lot of talent but they also have a lot of question marks. It’s unlikely that all of these guys will suffer worst-case scenarios, but the Braves definitely need to add a reliable arm to the rotational mix to offset any injury issues that will most likely occur.