Atlanta Braves ace Max Fried is set to hit the open market this off-season. Some projections have Fried earning around $22 million per year. If that’s the going rate, the Braves will get him back. The reality is, Max Fried is going to go for somewhere between $25-$30 million per season.

He has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball since 2020. We have attempted to thoroughly outline why the Braves will probably not re-sign Fried. Today, we’ll take a look at how much Max Fried will make in free agency this off-season.

As of now, Max Fried is one of the top two starting pitchers set to be an unrestricted free agent this off-season. This does not account for some potential options that could be exercised by the likes of Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell. Even then, Fried is still among the cream of the crop and he’s relatively young for a bona fide ace, entering his age-31 season.

Also Read: Top 10 SP Free Agents This Off-Season

Max Fried’s Resume

• Max Fried has a 2.81 ERA since the start of the 2020 season.
• He’s a leader.
• He’s a World Series Champion.
• He’s finished in the top five in Cy Young Award voting twice and finished second in 2022.
• Among starting pitchers with at least 500 innings since the start of 2020, Fried has the number one ERA.

Starting Pitcher ERA Since 2020 (Min. 500 innings pitched)

1. Max Fried, 2.81 ERA, 659 IP
2. Corbin Burnes, 2.87 ERA, 804 IP
3. Shane Bieber, 2.91 ERA, 514 IP
4. Zack Wheeler, 2.94ERA , 829.1 IP
5. Max Scherzer, 3.02 ERA, 588 IP

Interesting note about the top ERAs with at least 500 innings pitched since the start of 2020: The top three pitchers will all be free agents this off-season. Four of the top five are all free agents this off-season. Zack Wheeler signed an extension with the Phillies earlier this year.

In our post about why the Braves won’t re-sign Fried, we knocked around some numbers for recent big-name free-agent starting pitchers, and how they always go for more than the Braves are willing to pay.

Here’s what other analysts are projecting for Max Fried to bring home during the 2024-2025 Hot Stove League.

Max Fried Free Agent Contract Predictions

• Spotrac projects Fried to earn nab a six-year deal worth $136 million.
• MLB Trade Rumors justifies Fried earning between $140 million and $162 million, pointing to Patrick Corbin‘s and Carlos Rodon‘s contracts. Rodon is on a six-year deal.

Those projections seem too conservative for me. They range from about $22M-$26M per year over six years. Aaron Nola is on the high-end of those projections, signing a seven-year, $172 million contract ($24.6 million per year). Nola’s contract started this year, his age-31 season. Nola has had one season with a sub-3.00 ERA and has a career ERA of 3.70. He’s a really good pitcher. He deserves his contract and he’s top-of-the-rotation.

Max Fried’s career ERA is 3.07, that’s lower than Greg Maddux’s 3.16 career ERA. Fried has been among the best starters in baseball for a long time.

The one knock on Fried might be his struggles with injuries. One one hand, he’s pitched at least 160 innings in three of the past four years. On the other hand, he hasn’t exceeded 185.1 innings in any season. Fried has suffered from forearm strains here and blisters there.

Has Max Fried Had Tommy John Surgery?

Max Fried had Tommy John in 2014. Since then, he’s had mostly fluky injuries and hasn’t suffered a “serious” injury. Here’s a great article on how Max Fried isn’t injury prone, it highlights a lot of the flukiness of his boo-boos.

Fried is unlikely to settle for less than market value due to his minor injury history. I don’t think he’s settling for anything below $25 million per year. If he does go for the conservative projections we are seeing, the Braves should be there waiting with a checkbook. What sort of contract do you think Max Fried will get in free agency? Let us know in the comments below!

2025 Atlanta Braves Roster Resources

• Why Braves Won’t Re-Sign Max Fried
• 2025 MLB Free Agents
• Top 10 Free Agent Starting Pitchers in 2025
• Rating 10 Largest SP Contracts in MLB History
• 8 Atlanta Braves Free Agents | 4 Club Options
• 2025 Atlanta Braves Roster (41 Players Under Team Control)
• How does the Competitive Balance Tax Work?