The Atlanta Braves 2024 season is approaching the end of the road. The Braves are fighting for their Postseason lives and Max Fried is preparing for what might be his final few games in a Braves uniform. Max Fried is set to enter free agency after the 2024 season. We explain why it’s unlikely the Atlanta Braves are going to manage to afford Max Fried this offseason (Read: What will Max Fried make in free agency?)
Also Read: All 136 MLB Free Agents | Top 10 Free Agent Starting Pitchers to Replace Max Fried
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In the Alex Anthopoulos era we’ve seen the Braves hand out quite a few lucrative contracts via extensions. Anthopoulos started his tenure with the Braves in November of 2017 and since then we’ve seen many star players secured for several years. Here are the largest contracts Alex Anthopoulos has issued during his time with the Atlanta Braves:
Alex Anthopoulos Largest Contracts with Atlanta Braves
- Austin Riley Contract, 10 years, $212,000,000
- Matt Olson Contract, 8 years, $168,000,000
- Ronald Acuna Jr. Contract, 8 years, $100,000,000
- Spencer Strider Contract, 8 years, $75,000,000
- Sean Murphy Contract, 6 years, $73,000,000
- Michael Harris II Contract, 8 years, $72,000,000
- Marcell Ozuna Contract, 4 years, $65,000,000
- Ozzie Albies Contract, 7 years, $35,000,000
Now, all of those contract have something in common. They were extensions. Most of them bought out arbitration years. Ozuna’s was only four years following a one-year prove-it deal in 2020. To me, it’s pretty glaring that none of these represent a big-name, top of the market, unrestricted free agent. While some of these numbers look big, they are mostly considered pretty team-friendly deals.
Alex Anthopoulos has not shown the willingness to overpay on the open market for a top tier free agent. This is especially true regarding long-term free agent contracts. We aren’t knocking him for it. So many of those contracts take you well into a player’s thirties, make you over pay for the few years left of their primes, and then eat it even worse as they age.
Also Read: Evaluating the 10 Largest Starting Pitching Contracts in MLB History
Anthopoulos’ strategy has been working for the Braves. However, does this mean it is time to start saying our goodbyes to Max Fried?
Atlanta Braves History of Letting Superstar Free Agents Walk Under Alex Anthopoulos
I don’t need to spend a lot of time explaining this one. Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson have crushed our souls in recent years as they departed for more money than Atlanta offered. The good news is, the Braves didn’t not try!
What did the Braves offer Freddie Freeman in Free Agency?
When Freddie Freeman was entertaining offers following the 2021 season in free agency, the Braves reportedly offered Freeman a five-year, $140 million deal. They were bested by the Dodgers six-year, $162 million deal. It was also reported that the Braves offered Freddie an extension near the 2021 trade deadline, which he declined because it was obviously less than market value.
What did the Braves offer Dansby Swanson in Free Agency?
The Braves weren’t even close to getting Dansby Swanson. Dansby had established himself as one of the stars of the game and the best at his position with the bat and glove. He took the leadership duties from Freeman in 2022 and took them straight to Chicago. The Braves offered Swanson a six-year deal worth $100 million over the summer of 2022. Evidently, they left it as it was and let Swanson leave for a seven-year deal worth $177 million! The Braves weren’t even in the same ballpark.
Max Fried Comparable Players and Contracts
Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves agreed to $15 million in his final year of arbitration. To put that in perspective, the highest arbitration salaries ever awarded to a pitcher in arbitration cases were as follows:
Highest MLB Pitcher Arbitration Salaries Awarded in Hearings
- Max Fried, Atl (2023): $13,500,000
- Gerrit Cole, Hou (2019): $13,500,00
- Trevor Bauer, Cle (2019): $13,000,000
- Corbin Burnes, Mil (2023): $10,010,000
- Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (2008): $10,000,000
As you can see, Max Fried is among the highest-paid arbitration eligible players in history. He’s in line for a massive contract with his incredible track record. The Atlanta Braves are loaded with starting pitching right now with Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Strider, and Spencer Schwellenbach, but Max Fried has been one of the top pitchers in all of baseball over the past few season. He won’t be lost in the shuffle in the free agent market.
Max Fried Has Been Elite Since 2020
Max Fried has the third-best ERA among all qualified starting pitchers since the start of the 2020 season. He is just a hair behind Brandon Woodruff (2.76 ERA) and Clayton Kershaw (2.79 ERA) with a 2.85 ERA. It is worth nothing that Fried has significantly more innings than the other pitchers in the top four. Fried has logged 638.1 innings since 2020 while Woodruff and Kershaw are at 473.1 and 468.0, respectively.
Max Fried is fifth in the MLB in complete games since 2020, going the distance on five different occasions. It is also worth noting, Fried is among league leaders in Madduxes, and also third on the Braves all-time list in “Madduxes.”
Read more about “Madduxes” here.
Fried has finished in the top five in Cy Young voting twice since 2020, finishing second in 2022. Over eight seasons, Max Fried has compiled a total ERA of 3.11. He will be entering his age 31 season in 2025.
Massive Free-Agent Pitching Contracts in Recent Years
Just take a look at some of the deals that the top free-agent pitchers signed this past offseason. We’ll exclude Shohei Ohtani‘s $700,000,000 deal.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325,000,000 deal with the Dodgers. His AAV is $27 million per year.
Blake Snell is a good comp, he was set to enter his age 32 season and was coming off of a Cy Young. Blake Snell and Max Fried are both lefties. Snell got a two-year, $62 million deal from the Giants. His AAV is $31,000,000.*
*Technically, his AAV is less because the Giants gave Snell a $17 million signing bonus and a $15 million salary in 2023. He is set to earn $30 million in 2025.
Aaron Nola signed for seven-years, $172 million. His AAV is $24.6 million. Nola is very good, but he had a 3.97 ERA between 2019-2023 (prior to his free agency). He hit free agency at 31. Fried has been better than Nola in the years leading up to his free agency.
Eduardo Rodriguez got four years and $20 million per year entering his age-32 season. He entered free agency with a career ERA of 4.03. He would be the third-highest paid Atlanta Braves player in 2023.
Gerrit Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract with the Yankees in the offseason prior to the 2020 season.
In the four years prior to Cole’s massive contract, he was 17th in the MLB in ERA with a 3.31. In terms of earned run average, Fried has a longer and better track record entering free agency than Cole did.
Zack Wheeler signed a three-year extension with the Phillies worth $42 million per year. However, these short-term deals usually come with a higher annual price tag. Take a look at the deals Blake Snell, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander got. It’s the tradeoff to the team for less long-term risk. The Braves have used their own version of these with Cole Hamels, Charlie Morton, Josh Donaldson, and Marcell Ozuna. The difference is they usually stop around $20 million.
The one thing the Braves have going for them is the chance that the pitching free agent market is overcrowded this year. If the top bidders don’t end up with Max Fried, the Braves might be in the ballpark. Based on Fried’s track record of dominance over the past few years, it seems unlikely that the Braves will be able to retain the services of the star pitcher.
What Will Max Fried Earn in Free Agency?
It isn’t’ very often a pitcher with the track record Max Fried has hits free agency. I believe Fried is worth more than the Braves are going to be willing to (or feel the need to) pay. Fried and Gerrit Cole lead the way in terms of arbitration salaries. Cole got $36 million annually. Let’s take a look at the top salaries for starting pitchers in 2023 to get an idea where Fried’s AAV might end up.
2024 Top Starting Pitcher AAV Salaries (Per Spotrac)
- Max Scherzer, $43.3 million
- Justin Verlander, $43.3 million
- Jacob deGrom, $40 million
- Gerrit Cole, $36 million
- Patrick Corbin, $35.4 million
- Stephen Strasburg, $35 million
- Carlos Rodon, $27.8 million
- Aaron Nola, $24,6 million
- Luis Castillo, $24.1 million
- Kevin Gausman, $24 million
There are a few takeaways from that list above. There is a lot of dead money on the list, further supporting what I said earlier about the danger in handing out the massive contracts to players heading down the backside of their careers. That Patrick Corbin contract is an abomination! If Rodon got $28 million per year, and the top pitchers in the game are making $36-$43 million per year, I don’t like the Braves odds of bringing Max Fried home.
Atlanta Braves highest-paid players in 2024:
- Matt Olson, $22 million
- Austin Riley, $21 million
- Ronald Acuna Jr., $17 million
- Marcell Ozuna, $16 million
- Raisel Iglesias, $16 million
- Max Fried, $15 million
If Fried earns something along the lines of Rodon and Nola’s AAV (and give me Fried over both those guys), it would represent a big gap between Fried and the next-highest paid player on the Braves’ roster in 2025 (as of now). Riley, Olson, and Sale are all set to lead the way by earning $22 million in 2025.
Is a long-term investment in Fried – that will likely take him to his late 30s or age 40- worth the risk?
Alex Anthopoulos’ track record tells me the Braves are not likely to take that risk.
Conclusion
After this season, it might be time to hang your Max Fried jerseys on the wall next to Freeman’s and Swanson’s in your man caves, or your Braves’ hallway of legends.
Do you think the Atlanta Braves will make a real run at bringing Max Fried back this offseason? Let us know in the comments!
2025 Atlanta Braves Roster Resources
- 2025 MLB Free Agents
- How Much Will Max Fried Make in Free Agency?
- Top 10 Free Agent Starting Pitchers in 2025
- Rating 10 Largest SP Contracts in MLB History
- 8 Atlanta Braves Free Agents | 4 Club Options
- 2025 Atlanta Braves Roster (41 Players Under Team Control)
- How Does the Competitive Balance Tax Work?
- Why Braves Should Sign Willy Adames
- Why Braves Won’t Sign Jack Flaherty
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