The Atlanta Braves have dropped two straight close games to the Seattle Mariners. After two fantastic pitching performances on both sides, we like the matchup for the Braves to take one from the Mariners.

Emerson Hancock vs. Braves Hitters

Emerson Hancock has never faced any Atlanta Braves hitters over his eight career starts. Hancock has a 5.06 ERA on the season, allowing 15 earned runs in 26.0 innings pitched this season. He has allowed five homers in his five starts. He primarily relies on pitching to contact and minimizing walks. Unfortunately for Emerson, he has pitched to a lot of hard contact this year.

His 93 mph fastball isn’t blowing anyone away and opposing hitters are slugging .688 off his slider and .680 off of his sinker.

Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley have been crushing the baseball in the past week. Emerson Hancock could present a prime opportunity for these sluggers to put some numbers on the board.

Since April 23rd, here are their hard-hit numbers.

• Marcell Ozuna:
  • 75% hard-hit rate
  • 12 hard-hit balls
  • Avg. exit velocity: 96.5 mph
• Matt Olson
  • 58.8% hard-hit rate
  • 10 hard-hit balls
  • Avg. exit velocity: 95.2 mph
• Austin Riley
  • 55.6% hard-hit rate
  • 10 hard-hit balls
  • Avg. exit velocity: 91.6 mph

Why we like Ronald Acuna Jr. vs. Emerson Hancock today

It feels like you could say this every game, but it could be a good spot for Acuna to show some power. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s power numbers numbers are way down this season. His strikeout rate is up and he’s not hitting fastballs. Acuna Jr. is hitting just .224 with a mere two extra-base hits off of heaters this season.

Hancock’s fastball velocity ranks in the 40th percentile. Acuna has had better luck against finesse pitchers over power pitchers this season. Hancock throws 20% changeups. Ronald Acuna Jr. has a .350 average and a .450 slugging percentage on off-speed pitches in 2024.

Acuna’s only homer this season came off of J.P. France, another guy who throws a fastball around 92-93 mph with a low strikeout-rate.

On the bright side for Ronald Acuna Jr., he has still been getting on base at an elite clip, thanks in large part to his 14.2% walk-rate.

Over the past week Ronald Acuna Jr. has an average exit velocity over 95 mph with a 50% hard-hit rate. The stars might be aligning for Acuna to pad his slugging percentage in today’s matinee against the Mariners.

First pitch is set for 3:40 pm ET.