The Atlanta Braves have taken the first two games of the series in dramatic fashion. After being encouraged to track our picks the past couple of games, the Braves offense/bullpen has made us look good. We are now 4-0 in our picks over the past two games.

Today the Braves send Chris Sale to the mound against Ryne Nelson . We love our chances of keeping the streak going! Let’s go.

Chris Sale has become the de facto ace of the staff this season. Arizona has to be disheartened after having the Braves snatch victories out from under them in the past two games. Today, they send Ryne Nelson to the mound against an offense that leads the league in batting average and is fourth in OBP.

Ryne Nelson vs. Atlanta Braves Hitters

The Braves have only compiled 32 at-bats against the 26-year-old righty. They have not faired well collectively. The Braves are hitting just .188 off him with a .297 OBP. However, despite their struggles they have managed to slug .469. Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley have both homered off the righty, totaling two dingers in nine at-bats. Ronald Acuna jr. has the only double.

I’m not going to put too much stock into the low batting average against Nelson. It’s a small sample size and this offense is too good to worry about it. nelson has a career ERA of 5.02 over 165.0 innings. He only strikes out 6.2 batters per nine innings. His 2023 Baseball Savant page is COVERED in blue. This is a good matchup for Atlanta. This is not the sort of pitcher the Braves offense should be worried about.

Ryne Nelson ranked in the 22nd percentile in hard-hit percentage last season.

This may be a case of simply riding the hot hands on offense. Marcell Ozuna has four homers after seven games. He had just two hits in all of April last year.

Chris Sale vs. Diamondbacks Hitters

Sale has struck out 16 Diamondbacks in 57 at-bats. Diamondbacks hitters have totaled a .211 average against the lefty. If you take Randal Grichuk‘s success against Sale out of the equation, the rest of the team has really struggled against him. Grichuk has hit .333 with 2 HRs in 18 at-bats.

Our Moneyline and Player Prop Picks for Braves vs. Diamondbacks (04/07/2024)

Our odds were pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Player Prop: Michael Harris II has excelled against “finesse” pitchers. He has slashed .319/.338/.529. his low walk-rate against such pitchers means he has less of a chance of walking and a better chance at getting a hit. Michael Harris II over 0.5 hits (-270)

Player Prop: I have been hesitant to pick some of these strikeout numbers so far this year, but I like Sale over 5.5 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks today. The Braves need a solid start from a starter and Sale is one of the most accomplished aces in the history of baseball. He struck out seven in his first start and they need him to give the bullpen a break today. The Braves need a good outing from Sale and I think that means he’ll clear six strikeouts.

We’ll take the Braves Moneyline at -218. Sale has a good outing and hands off to a bullpen that has a 2.10 ERA so far this season. Offense rolls against Nelson.

We don’t count this as a pick, but let this serve as a reminder. If you want to have a little fun with a parlay, keep this in mind. In 2023, in games in which Acuna stole a base, he also had a hit in 90% of them. He combined a steal and a run in 73% of the games with a steal. Acuna stole a base in 38% of his games last year and hasn’t stolen a base since Opening Day this year.

Disclaimer: Any bets you place based on our advice will likely make you lose. Never gamble any money that is not budgeted as such. Pay your damn bills before you gamble. Only use discretionary funds. If you think you have a gambling problem, you shouldn’t have even read this article and tempted yourself.