The Atlanta Braves‘ season opener was a smashing success as the Braves took down the Phillies 9-3. Today Atlanta will send Max Fried to the mound at Citizens Bank Park at 4:05 PM EST. We bring you some of our favorite odds and predictions, with historical context to explain why.

Max Fried will make his first start of the season after Spencer Strider was named Opening Day starter. Mad Max has a lot to prove this season as he enters his final year before free agency. Fried has truly been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2020.

Since 2020, Fried has the second-best ERA (2.66) among qualified starting pitchers behind only Justin Verlander (2.46). Among pitchers with 350 or more innings (Fried has 484.2 to Verlander’s 343.1), Fried is the top dog.

Fried has something to prove after the Braves officially turned the honor of Opening Day starter over to Spencer Strider, despite Fried being one of the game’s best pitchers for multiple years now.

Will Max Fried be able to overcome a tough matchup on the road against Philadelphia?

MONEYLINE

Atlanta Braves Max Fried has a career ERA of 4.02 at Citizen’s Bank Park.

In Aaron Nola‘s last two home starts against the Braves he didn’t allow a run over 12.0 innings while striking out 14. In the two starts prior to those he allowed nine earned runs in 13.0 innings.

In Nola’s three starts against the Braves last year (including the two in Atlanta), he allowed seven earned runs in 18 innings.

I like Fried’s chances enough to keep the Braves in the game and give them a shot at the win. Once the Braves get to the Phillies bullpen, all bets are off… or on the Braves. Yesterday the Phillies’ relievers got so wild the crowd sarcastically erupted over a called strike.

Braves Win at -135 odds.

Disclaimer: I’m usually always going to pick the Braves. I feel less confident about this than yesterday’s and wouldn’t be surprised to see Philly take one of the next two at home. But I’m still betting on the Braves.

Player Props

Max Fried’s O/U on strikeouts is set at 6.5.

Fried makes me a bit nervous against some of the Phillies, J.T. Realmuto has a career average of .342 with six extra-base hits in 38 at-bats vs. Fried. Trea Turner is hitting .367 with a .424 OBP in 30 at-bats.

On the flipside, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber have combined to strikeout in 37/117 at-bats against Fried.

Aaron Nola is also set at 6.5.

Last season, Fried faced the Phillies once and he went 5.0 innings while striking out 6.

I’m not taking the over on the strikeouts and probably not taking the under. Personally, I’m not betting on Fried’s strikeouts and I’m rooting for him to keep the Braves in this game.

But you can do what you will with those numbers. Let’s hope the Phillies’ sluggers end up leaning into the strikeout tendencies instead of the slugging tendencies they’ve shown against Fried in the past.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Player Prop Parlay for 03/30/24 vs. Aaron Nola and Phillies

Ronald Acuna Jr.: Yesterday we hit on RAJ to get a hit, a stolen base, and a run scored to earn +525 odds. Acuna sole a base in 60 games last year, he also had a hit in 54 of those 60 games.

Acuna has a .424 OBP with a .692 SLG against Nola in his career. There’s a pretty good chance he gets on base and if he gets on base, there’s a good chance he’s going to try and steal.

I like parlaying an Acuna SB with an Acuna hit. The only problem is, today they have his o/u on hits at 1.5 for Ronald. Probably because of his successful track record against Nola. One hit seems too easy for the oddsmakers to give it to you. With that in mind… Acuna is slugging .692 against Nola with 10 XBH in 52 at-bats.

That’s why I am taking a Ronald Acuna Jr. steal + the over on 1.5 total bases at +475.

Austin Riley Player Prop Parlay for 03/30/24 vs. Aaron Nola and Phillies

The only player on the Braves with a higher career OPS vs. Aaron Nola is Austin Riley. The slugging third baseman has hammered five homers, five doubles, and 22 hits in 57 at-bats. Riley has a career .386 average and 16 RBI against Nola.

I like an Austin Riley Parlay with one hit + one RBI at +200.

Let us know your favorite bets for the Braves game in the comments below!

Disclaimer: Any bets you place based on our advice will likely make you lose. Never gamble any money that is not budgeted as such. Pay your damn bills before you gamble. Only use discretionary funds. If you think you have a gambling problem, you shouldn’t have even read this article and tempted yourself.