The Atlanta Braves have a perennial Cy Young candidate on their hands for many years to come in Spencer Strider. Alex Anthopoulos locked him up to a six-year deal in October of 2022. Last year, Stider finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. Strider has one of the most electric fastballs in all of baseball. He complements that with a four-seam slider (we’ll get into that later). Every now and then, he also throws a change-up.
Many analysts and fans have argued that he will need a reliable third pitch (change-up) to meet the required traditional standards of a success starting pitcher. HE MUST HAVE THREE PITCHES! This was something Kris Medlen and I recently spoke about on the Talkin’ Tomahawk Podcast. Medlen is a believer that Strider can sustain success with two elite pitches. Check that out below. Please subscribe, like, and listen to the podcast!
Kris Medlen talks about pitching, his journey to the big leagues, and transitioning to a new career – Talkin Tomahawk – Atlanta Braves Baseball
The traditional narrative on having at least three pitches. There exists a philosophy that a starting pitcher needs to have at least three pitches. One that’s fast, one that’s slow, and one that moves. In other words, a fastball, a change-up, and a breaking ball.
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Spencer Strider’s Pitch Types in 2023
Spencer Strider has defied those rules thus far. He relies primarily on his electric fastball and slider combo. In 2023, he threw his fastball 59.0% of the time, the slider 33.8% of the time, and a sprinkle of the change-up at 7.3% of the time. Of the top 10 pitchers in fWAR last year, Strider was one of only four that threw his fastball over 50% of the time.
Strider wasn’t the only Cy Young finalist who relied on two pitches in 2023
Speaking of pitchers who finished top 10 in fWAR last year, Strider was not the only one who relied primarily on two pitches. Justin Steele actually threw his fastball MORE than Strider. Steele threw his fastball almost 63% of the time and threw his slider 33.9% of the time. He registered a change-up, sinker, and cutter, but none of them were throw more than 1.8% of the time. He was primarily a two-pitch pitcher. Steele finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting, one spot behind Strider.
Can Spencer Strider go deep into games with only two pitches?
Third time through the order stats have always been tricky to me. In general, a starting pitcher is beginning to tire by the time they reach the third trip through the lineup. It isn’t automatic that a pitcher performs more poorly the third time through the lineup, especially if the manager is in tune with his pitcher.
Case in point, during Michael Soroka’s magical 2019 season he met the opposing lineups for a third time in 28 of 29 starts that year. The third time through the lineup yielded the lowest batting average against for the Maddux Maple.
Michael Soroka’s 2019: 3rd time through order (TTO) BAA splits
- 1st time through: .239 BAA
- 2nd time through: .246 BAA
- 3rd time through: .220 BAA
The third time through the lineup also yielded the lowest slugging percentage against for Soroka in 2019. Another interesting look into what happens when a manager trusts his ace when he’s got his good stuff is the stats by pitch count that year.
Michael Soroka’s 2019 splits: OPS against by pitch count
- Pitches 1-25: .659 OPS
- Pitches 26-50: .642 OPS
- Pitches 51-75: .611 OPS
- Pitches 76-100: .569 OPS
Strider didn’t seem to have any issues facing batters the third time through the lineup either. Here are Strider’s splits last season.
Spencer Strider’s 2023: 3rd time through order (TTO) splits
- 1st time through: .211 BAA
- 2nd time through: .214 BAA
- 3rd time through: .203 BAA
Spencer Strider’s 2023 splits: OPS against by pitch count
- Pitchers 1-25: .635
- Pitches 26-50: .645
- Pitches 51-75: .672
- Pitches 76-100: .636
What makes Spencer Strider’s fastball so good?
This Pitching Ninja breakdown from four months ago does a better job breaking it down than I will. Show some support to Pitching Ninja by watching and liking (loving) the video below.
In the video, he affirms many of the things Kris Medlen observed in the podcast he and I did. Strider works his fastball in middle-up part of the plate. He’s not afraid to put one over the middle. In the Pitching Ninja video, he said hitters had an expected slugging percentage of .250 against 98 mph+ fastballs in the middle of the zone (at that time) from Strider.
Strider’s low release point, high velocity + spin, and extreme extension give Strider more than just a really fast fastball. Strider is a self-proclaimed pitching nerd. He has mixed the art of deception in with his extreme velocity. Strider is just 5’11” yet he is in the 93rd percentile in extension. His low release point is the result of him hiding the ball well. It’s REALLY hard to track the ball out of his hand. On top of that, it explodes at you, sometimes reaching as high as 102 mph.
Add in the fact that his ball has the “rising” illusion. His fastball has enough velocity and spin, that it has 19% less drop than the average major-league four-seamer.
Despite having a different game than Greg Maddux, Strider is the modern day “Professor.”
Spencer Strider’s 4-Seam Slider
His four-seam slider covers both the “pitch with movement and pitch that’s slower” types. Really, it works as two pitches. When you are gearing up for a 100 mph fastball that has an “invisi-ball” effect (as Kris Medlen put it), then you get a mid-eighties slider with the same release point and grip as the fastball… good luck.
Strider explains how he put more emphasis on the arm slot and matching the tunnel of his fastball over depth on the pitch. He is prioritizing deception over anything. In theory, his slider is using it’s offspeed nature to work the same as a change-up… it just breaks like a slider (because it is a slider). The guy has a future as a pitching coach once his playing days are over… You know, after he wins like six Cy Youngs and a couple of World Championships. At the very least, he’d fit in nicely with Kris Medlen and Jonny Venters at Legacy Sports Complex.
Conclusion
To sum it all up like I said in the podcast with Kris Medlen, don’t fix it if it ain’t broken. By the way, on the rare occasion Strider threw his change-up last season, nobody could hit it either. Go look at the numbers against it.
Let me know in the comments if you think Strider needs to throw a third pitch more consistently or not. Don’t forget to subscribe to our newsletter for the latest Braves updates.
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