The Atlanta Braves have been rumored to be interested in Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays. Why wouldn’t they!? Today, we explain why we think a trade for Glasnow would be a better move for the Braves than a Dylan Cease trade.
How good is Tyler Glasnow?
Tyler Glasnow is one of the elite arms in the game… when he’s healthy. He started in Pittsburgh and like most pitchers who leave, he figured out how to be elite with another team. In 388.1 innings pitched for the Rays, Glasnow has posted a 3.20 ERA with 12.2 Ks per nine and a 1.025 WHIP.
Glasnow did get hit pretty hard last season, but still finished with a 2.91 FIP in 120 innings. There is still a lot of red on his Statcast page.
It’s no surprise that the 6’8″ righty is among league-leaders in extension. Add that to the fact that his average fastball is 96.4 mph and I can’t imagine how quickly that thing gets on a hitter. His 33.4% K-rate makes him one of the elite swing-and-miss pitchers in the league.
Not only does Glasnow have one of the elite strikeout arms in the game, but over the past three seasons he has limited walks to less than three per nine innings.
Of pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past three seasons, Glasnow is second in K/9IP, behind only Spencer Strider. In that time nine pitchers have a K/9 greater than 11. Glasnow has the lowest walks per nine of any of them.
Why is Tyler Glasnow a better deal than Dylan Cease for the Atlanta Braves?
I’ll sum up what I wrote in the Trade Rumors Tracker. Cease is cheaper, yes. He’s projected to earn around $8.8 million next year in arbitration. Glasnow is set to make $25 million. Cease has two years of control. Glasnow has one.
Cease has not been as good of a pitcher as Glasnow. Outside of his one Cy Young year, he has a 4.46 career ERA in over 440 innings pitched. That’s not to say that he won’t be great this season, but Glasnow has a track record of several years that point to being elite. He also walks far fewer hitters than Cease, who has led the league in walks twice.
Glasnow should cost fewer prospects since he is more expensive and is a one-year rental.
Is he more injury prone? Yes. I don’t care. As long as he passes a physical now. It’s one year. Neither one of these guys are going to solve the Braves long-term needs at rotation. You can also forget about an extension on Dylan Cease. He’s represented by Scott Boras and he needs a really good season or two under his belt to increase his asking price on the open market.
Let’s face it, $25 million for one year of one of the top pitchers in baseball is a risk well worth taking! We paid Cole Hamels $20 million to not pitch for us and the Braves are fine. One-year deals are low-risk.
Leave a Reply