Being apparently unable to convince useful free agents to join the team last Winter, the Atlanta Braves are now rolling out the welcome mats to try again this off-season. But how well will their bribery work this year?

Determining just how fat their wallet is… there’s a complicated answer, but I promise we’ll get to it — starting right now.

Given how the 2025 season turned out, that lack of signings last year does present a silver lining of sorts with regard to the MLB luxury tax.

In 2023 and 2024, the Braves were ‘tax payers’; i.e., their fully-loaded payroll exceeded the MLB’s payroll penalty threshold, and they were required to send a check to MLB as punishment for that sin.

In 2023, that penalty was roughly $3.5 million – 20% of the amount that they were over the threshold.  In 2024, was a hefty $17.4 million and change.

This 2024 tax represented a 30% tax rate as a 2^nd-time violator plus two different surcharges due to being more than $40 million above the base threshold.  In total, their penalty was more than 40% of the overall overage amount.

Had the Braves continued to be above the luxury tax threshold in 2025, their penalty would have been 50 cents for every dollar spent above that $241 million barrier.

But by all accounts, they were in the ‘safe zone’ this past season… staying under the bar by less than $2.5 million.

That action alone will save the team some significant money over the next two seasons, as the basic tax rate will drop back to the 20% level – and presumably 30% for 2027 (albeit with surcharges still in force for any and all egregious spending).

Payroll vs. Competitive Balance Tax (CBT)  Payroll

One quick lesson is needed on the difference between the basic payroll and the (higher) figure of payroll used to determine luxury tax compliance.

Most of the time, we think of the ‘payroll’ as the sum total of the contracted amounts paid to each player on the roster.  By that metric, the Braves had a $220+ million basic payroll in 2025.

However, that isn’t the full story.  The MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement defines a different number for the purposes of implementing their tax law:  in short, it’s the cost of player benefits and contract structures.

Typically, this involves the difference between the salary for a particular season and the AAV (Average Annual Salary) for an extended contract, which could include deferred monies (see also: Dodgers, LA).  There’s also a ‘player benefits’ number added in to account for the cost of medical, insurance, and the like.

For example, the Braves were hit harder by this difference in 2023 when both Austin Riley ($15 million) and Sean Murphy ($4 million) were still in the earlier phases of their respective contracts.  Additionally, benefits accounted for $16.5 million.

The Cots site thus calculated the CBT payroll to be $39+ million above the actual payroll for that season.  Accordingly, that differential shrank to $18.3 million in 2025 given more mature player contracts, with $17.5 million of that being the ‘benefits’ portion.

As of this moment, that ‘add on’ could end up being lower for 2026 since every current player with an extended contract will be at – or nearly at – their maximum annual paycheck.

All that stated… you can figure that Atlanta will have a payroll add-on somewhere between $16 and $20 million – with the higher value fairly unlikely unless there’s a big surprise coming to the roster this Winter.

Getting into the Top 5

While a ‘Top 5’ payroll might be a goal, that’s harder than you’d think to achieve…. And that’s all due to the spending habits of the usual suspects.  Here are the top six for 2025:

• Dodgers ($415.2 million)
• Mets ($341.8 million)
• Yankees ($318.8 million)
• Phillies ($307.8)
• Blue Jays ($278.8)
• Padres ($271.0)

The Braves ranked 10^th in 2025 after being 4^th a year before and 7^th/8^th in the two prior seasons).  They were credited with $238.6 million CBT dollars spent in 2025.

The averages tend to rise by a few million each season, so as a baseline figure, let’s assert that it will take $285 million to pass up the Jays and reach that ‘Top 5’ level next season. 

We’ll further stipulate that Terry McGwirk has given Alex Anthopoulos the authority to spend that much cash on the major league roster (and AA has oft declared that money is no barrier for getting any player he believes would be a difference maker for his club).

For the rest of this, I’d like to deal with actual contracted dollars – i.e., the amount that will be spent in written payroll checks … subtracting the AAV dollars and benefits. 

By the prior estimate, the central value in that $16-20 million range for benefits reduces my $285 million figure by $18 million, or $267 million: so $267 million will be our targeted payroll amount.

The Amount of Spending Power Available

In 2025, the actual spending on payroll was $200.3 million (and a standing ovation to the Cot’s site for adding all that up among some ninety different line items!).

So let’s break it down:

• Goal payroll:  $267 million
• 2025 year-end payroll:  200.3 million
• Base difference:  $66.7 million
• Add:  removal of Rafael Iglesias:  $16 million
• Add:  removal of Marcell Ozuna:  $16 million
• Subtract:  raise for Reynoldo Lopez:  $6 million
• Add:  removal of Pierce Johnson:  $7 million
• Subtract:  raise for Spencer Strider:  $16 million
• Subtract:  raise for Jurickson Profar:  $3 million
• Subtract:  raise for Aaron Bummer:  $6 million
• Add:  removal of Jarred Kelenic:  $2.3 million

Those are the bigger-figure adjustments.  The sheer volume of roster machinations during 2025 makes it extremely difficult to add in all of the adjustments for players that will not return, but I’m going to do a ‘hand wave’ thing here and suggest that (a) arbitration raises; and (b) the need to fill out the roster in any manner might just balance out enough to be within a $3-to-7 million or so.

So the math… $77 million.  That’s roughly the difference between the current state of the Braves’ payroll and a ‘Top 5’ payroll. 

No wonder Bob Nightengale thinks Atlanta might be among the most active teams this Winter in the free agent market.

Oh, But Those Pesky Thresholds

For 2026, the basic (fully-loaded) tax threshold will be $244 million. The surcharge levels appear every $20 million above that ($264m/$284m/$304m).

Getting into the Top 5 will demand that Atlanta breach the second (42.5%) taxing threshold. A $285 million fully-loaded payroll will require almost $20 million in taxes, and another $625,000 for every million dollars spent above that amount (so long as they don’t hit the maximum $304 million threshold).

So while McGwirk may be willing in principle, the idea of a 62.5% tax on every new dollar spent might give him pause at those payroll heights.

But it is the cost of doing business… and hopefully the chance of reaching the post-season with full seats and freer-flowing fan monies.

With that $77 million, Atlanta needs a shortstop, a horse-like starting pitcher, and most of a bullpen.

That’s clearly doable with that kind of cash… the question, of course, is how best to spend it.

That answer will have to wait for another day.