In 2025, the Atlanta Braves arguably had the worst luck of any of the thirty major league ball clubs.  Just three players stayed on the field for more than 125 games, and one of those (Ozzie Albies) broke his hamate during the season’s last week. 

Along with the injuries, there was a dugout-full of under-performing and patchwork players, all of which led to the worst season result since 2017 and the team’s worst finishing position since 2016.

But enough about that, for the luck of the Braves will have a solid chance to change for the better during December’s Winter Meetings in Orlando… ironically a place where the Braves spent so many Spring Training sessions before moving to North Port.

How can this be?  It all has to do with something the Braves haven’t ever been in position to take advantage of:  the MLB Draft Lottery.

Instituted in 2023, the lottery was introduced for the same reason other sports leagues have done so:  to reduce the incentive for teams to ‘tank’ their own seasons for the purpose of securing a better draft position.

But MLB has gone further: along with a sliding scale of odds for the non-playoff teams, there are even more provisions that serve to discourage tanking — some of which will benefit the Braves this very Winter:

• Teams being paid revenue-sharing dollars are exempted from the lottery if they have been lottery teams for the past two consecutive seasons.
• Teams paying revenue-sharing dollars to the league are exempted from the lottery if they were lottery teams during the most recent draft.

That first rule eliminates the Colorado Rockies for this year.  The second rule takes out both Washington and the LA Angles.  All three of those clubs finished 2025 with worse records than Atlanta, so… the Braves move up… kinda.  More on that in just a bit.

The Basics

The Draft Lottery takes place during baseball’s Winter Meetings, typically the early evening of the second day. This year, that looks to occur on December 8. In any case, look for it on the MLB Network — they will have the coverage.

All non-excluded non-playoff teams have a chance to get one of the top 6 draft picks next Summer… but some have a much better chance than others.

Atlanta has the sixth-best odds of landing the #1 overall pick in the draft at 4.54%.  This falls in line behind the White Sox (27.73%), Twins (22.18%), Pirates (16.81%), Orioles (9.24%), and Athletics (6.55%).

That’s probably all that you’ll learn from other sites about this topic.  But we do more here :).  Keep reading…

The bad news?  When Colorado, Washington, and LA were removed from the lottery process, their ping pong balls went with them.  Teams below them in the pecking order didn’t simply move up to grab both their slot and their odds position.

So the odds of Atlanta and the Sacra-Vegas Athletic (in particular) did not suddenly and dramatically improve when those clubs had their invitations get lost in the mail.  All of the odds did go up a bit… but only because the pool is now smaller. 

This also explains some of the big gaps in the percentages you just saw… and why the White Sox have this whopping 27.73% chance of grabbing that top pick (heck, the worst they can do is get pick #7).

Still… so long as a total disaster is avoided on lottery day, Atlanta will almost certainly be awarded one of the top 9 picks for next Summer’s Rule 4 draft.

How do we know this?  Because we created a simulator program that ran through 50 million “drawings” to see what the Braves might be able to expect once the ping pong balls start popping.  You’re welcome.

Key Takeaways

• Again: 18 teams failed to make the playoffs this year… but thanks to the rules noted above, only 15 will be in the lottery hunt.  The other squads not mentioned previously have 1^st pick odds ranging from 3.03% for the 1st overall pick (Tampa Bay) to 0.34% (Houston).
• Lottery picks only impact the first 6 picks for the draft, so while that 1^st pick is the big prize, there’s still 5 significant consolation prizes available. 
• All teams not drawn among the top 6 will conform to their finishing order positions for picks 7 through 18…
• … almost.  By rule, the aforementioned Rockies, Nats, and Angels are guaranteed to pick in the 10th, 11th, and 12th spots, respectively.  Everybody else has to be positioned around these clubs.
• As a result, the worst thing that can happen to a middling lottery club is to NOT see their ping pong balls come up, for that raises the potential for them to be bounced to that 13th draft slot.  In other words, if you’re worse than 9th, then you’ll end up 13th or worse.
• The teams that COULD suffer this fate?  Baltimore, Atlanta, Sacra-Vegas, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Miami.  Starting with Arizona (already 10th), they just have to assume they’ll be 13th or worse unless they get really lucky.

As for Atlanta, the only way they could be shuffled back to 13th is if neither they, nor 3 other higher-odds clubs above them have their names called in December. 

We ran those numbers:  it should only happen 0.41% of the time, so that’s good news.

Better News

Nominally, the Braves should get the 6th draft pick.  That’s what the odds suggest, and for every team picked that has better odds, they only serves to help Atlanta since a club can only be chosen once apiece.

But don’t miss this:  because there’s 6 drawings, the lottery is a cumulative thing.  The White Sox, for instance, have a 96.13% chance of getting one of those top six picks… 96.13% chance of seeing their team drawn at some point from the bouncing balls.  But once they are picked, that increases the odds for everybody else… you’d think.

We ran some of these scenarios:

• In situations when the Sox and Twins are already out of the way (ie., they are picking 1 and 2 in some order), the Braves’ average draft position will be 6^th (6.36).
• In situations when either the Sox or Twins (maybe both) are picking 1 or 2, the Braves’ average pick position is a little better:  6.17.
• In situations when the Sox and Twins are both unlucky and slip to the 3^rd or worse, Atlanta’s average position rises to 6.03.

The Bottom Line

Overall, Atlanta has these odds:

• 1st overall pick:  4.54%
• One of the top 2:  9.87%
• One of the top 3: 16.29%
• One of the top 4: 24.21%
• One of the top 5: 33.94%
• One of the top 6: 45.39%
• Anything from 7 to 9:  54.20%
• Worse than that:  0.41%
• Overall: Atlanta’s average draft position leans toward pick #7.

It may be a little disappointing, then, if Atlanta ends up with a draft spot below their ‘odds position’.  Still:  any Top 10 pick has to be considered a premium selection position, with a solid chance for the club to land a major-league caliber talent.

The history of the draft is littered with stories about under-rated and under-drafted players who ended up being stars, but it’s also very clear that your odds of success with top picks are very high when you pick in the top half of the first round.

That’s enough for this installment.  In the second part of this lottery discussion, I’ll talk about “what might have been” for Atlanta.

Expect a Surprise

In the meantime, I’ll leave you with a couple more nuggets from the simulator runs:  when those ping pong balls start bouncing in December, expect the unexpected. 

Why?  Because a “perfect” drawing — six picks coming in the exact order that the odds suggest — failed to occur 99.995% of the time!   

“Well, how ‘bout if the top 6 just stay in the top 6… in any order?”  There’s a lot better odds for that:  19.4%.  But watch out for this: the odds of at least TWO teams getting lucky and moving into the top 6 are a bit scary:  3.64%.

So it’s almost a stone cold cinch that some team — or teams — will serve up an upset when the drawing is conducted.

So why not Atlanta?  After all, this is happening at the Magic Kingdom.