Atlanta Braves fans have all seen the social media posts about Greg Maddux’s incredible statistic regarding how many times he had a 3-0 count. The stat says “Maddux faced 20,421 batters over his career and only 310 saw a 3-0 count. Of those, over half of them (177) were intentional walks.”
The rumor is Maddux only had 133 unintentional 3-0 counts. 133 3-0 counts in 20,421 PAs equates to .065% of total batters reaching a 3-0 count against Maddux in non-intentional walk situations.
Really incredible. Too good to be true?
Yes.
This statistic is not true.
Reasons Maddux 3-0 Count Stat is False
Baseball splits can be confusing and often require more context than the pages will openly and clearly provide. This post started as a post to celebrate the incredible stat I had heard over the years. As I started reading through the stats myself (which is so important in every aspect of life), I discovered that the numbers didn’t make any sense in the context in which they were presented.
Context is king.
Putting the Count/Balls-Strikes Stat into Context
The stat getting passed around can be found on Greg Maddux’s Baseball-Reference page under career splits > Count/Balls-Strikes.
It shows 3-0 counts: 312 PAs.
The assumption is that Maddux faced 312 3-0 counts over his 23-year career.
However, take a look at the 0-1 count row. If we are assuming that this stat represents how many times Maddux faced such counts as listed on the table, it would indicate that Maddux threw a first-pitch strike (or got to a 0-1 count) in just 2,184 PAs or 10.7% of plate appearances.
Does that sound right? It’s not. Something’s wrong.
It appears these stats show the data for PAs that end on the next pitch. I can’t know for sure because I can’t seem to find any official information explaining the statistics. If you find a link, please post it in the comments.
Applying the Same Logic to Other Counts Proves to be a Problem
But look at the count called “first pitch,” it says 3,387 first pitches.
Ask yourself, does that mean Maddux only threw 3,387 first pitches, even though we know he faced 20,421 batters over the course of his career? That also makes no sense. He only threw a first pitch to 16.6% of the batters he faced.
That sounds ridiculous. But that’s the same context in which the 3-0 count stat is being used.
Another important note is that the count data is only good from 1988 on. Maddux started his career in 1986, so the data is incomplete.
The Real Maddux 3-0 Stat
It seems more likely that the real 3-0 count stat we are looking for on Maddux is the one farther down that says “After 3-0 count.” In that case, Maddux had 643 PAs, which went 3-0.
In that case, batters had an OBP of .727 against Maddux. That makes a lot more sense than the .962 on the 3-0 stat being cited. A .962 OBP would indicate the PA ended on the next pitch to count toward that stat.
If Maddux faced 643 3-0 counts, and the data is only good from 1988 on, we need to remove the first two years to get a real percentage. That leaves 19,576 batters faced.
Of the 643 3-0 counts recorded, 401 walked.
Maddux had 162 intentional walks from 1988 on. We can subtract the 162 intentional walks from the 3-0 count data, but keep in mind that’s also assuming all of his intentional walks were 3-0 counts.
If you subtract the intentional walks, that leaves 481 batters faced with a 3-0 count (not including intentional walks).
2.46% of total batters Greg Maddux faced had “unintentional” 3-0 counts.
Of course, the word “unintentional” is not entirely true, either. He might have been intentionally pitching around a batter in many of those 3-0 counts to see if they would chase something out of the zone.
Maddux was not opposed to pitching around a hitter, as he discussed in his now famous breakdown of an at-bat with Barry Bonds.
Maddux was still an incredible control pitcher and one of the greatest to ever play the game. But that stat is too good to be true.
Support our site via our eBay affiliate links or our Atlanta Braves Card Shop. Check out our other sports cards and memorabilia at our eBay shop.
More on Greg Maddux from Talkin’ Tomahawk
- Greg Maddux vs. Barry Bonds
- Why Greg Maddux Was a Strikeout Pitcher
- What is a Maddux? Who Has the Most Madduxes?
- Top 25 Hitters Against Greg Maddux | Tony Gwynn’s Domination of Greg Maddux
- Top 5 Greg Maddux Rookie Cards with Vaues
Leave a Reply